Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 51900.310343 55030.311352 58168.787992 61549.293800 65085.012911 68671.294836 72581.276700
2024-10-20 46466.271219 51205.378241 56100.563523 61526.454811 67363.842215 73446.709711 80256.192299
2024-10-27 42474.274379 48264.477265 54387.369597 61327.390697 68957.710177 77073.854622 86341.809169
2024-11-03 40209.152342 46863.684527 54037.537914 62317.846239 71582.380817 81599.449606 93219.106248
2024-11-10 38237.305507 45573.087080 53616.280564 63047.913125 73761.047809 85507.833736 99316.923688
2024-11-17 36351.249522 44220.568062 52982.739740 63405.313327 75405.386957 88728.589499 104576.932999
2024-11-24 34488.584490 42767.493117 52119.392243 63391.854737 76533.347062 91291.563909 109036.667928
2024-12-01 33017.566235 41678.143626 51592.095220 63688.215647 77951.207711 94135.734081 113785.409488
2024-12-08 31551.944139 40513.394118 50902.911738 63726.514843 79010.562612 96523.333505 117979.228442
2024-12-15 30700.196022 40034.914780 50982.268325 64635.488250 81065.431650 100055.044419 123507.984769
2024-12-22 29358.057290 38895.015061 50211.157533 64473.537585 81803.452603 102008.056201 127162.582189
2024-12-29 28729.161521 38600.853177 50436.262529 65492.089313 83942.153918 105616.664772 132790.327896
2025-01-05 27842.049717 37962.203759 50227.160690 65980.011161 85454.042112 108510.535172 137624.094135
2025-01-12 26793.040097 37079.128967 49681.757763 66025.248152 86407.133578 110726.549727 141653.257507
2025-01-19 25698.949707 36095.132597 48971.068782 65828.781740 87033.594668 112527.829393 145173.368042
2025-01-26 25246.667169 35920.200952 49264.414442 66879.757947 89202.394425 116216.087882 151012.383005
2025-02-02 24701.097457 35598.578157 49350.557120 67652.786558 91015.895551 119470.309672 156335.165009
2025-02-09 24017.229403 35066.842056 49142.998935 68031.012660 92319.089645 122089.857365 160883.171112
2025-02-16 23205.771769 34334.985194 48649.190247 68016.800267 93106.127242 124057.277237 164622.305414
2025-02-23 22572.979427 33821.720680 48421.421972 68330.315768 94299.962187 126530.060985 168999.203317
2025-03-02 21863.212521 33178.641051 48000.041648 68370.831078 95127.999317 128535.313499 172792.312916
2025-03-09 21550.279784 33070.853786 48282.141772 69332.295917 97148.600492 132058.822463 178521.043843
2025-03-16 20818.352432 32354.803478 47725.545525 69161.004140 97678.475814 133677.126888 181835.932089